SpaceX closed Friday at a record low of $115.07, well below the $135 price at which it went public in June, and the SpaceX lockup schedule is the reason the drop matters more than the number. The first tranche of previously restricted shares starts unlocking on August 6, and the early releases could put more stock on the market than the IPO itself did. The company sold only about 4% of its shares to the public at listing, so the float is thin and the coming supply is heavy. A Starship launch abort on Thursday added to the pressure, but the setup was already fragile. This piece breaks down the fall, the mechanics of the lockup cliff, and the bull and bear cases from here.
The Read
- SpaceX hit a record low $115.07, down 49% from its $225.64 post-IPO high
- The August 6 lockup start could release more shares than the entire IPO float
- Analysts stay bullish with a $242 average target, but the supply math cuts the other way
SpaceX Prints a Record Low of $115 Below Its IPO Price
The stock is now a broken IPO. SPCX closed at $115.07 on Friday, set a 52-week low of $110.85 intraday, and sits roughly 49% below its post-listing high of $225.64. For a name that debuted only in June, that is a violent round trip.
The starting point makes the drop sharper. SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 per share, opened at $150, and carried an IPO valuation near $1.77 trillion, as covered when the Nasdaq debut priced the listing at $135. Friday’s close leaves it under both its IPO and its opening print.
A Starship launch abort on Thursday, seconds after ignition, gave traders a fresh reason to sell. But operational hiccups are not the core issue here. The market cap has slipped to about $1.5 trillion, and the tape has been grinding lower for weeks regardless of the day’s headline.
The read for an investor is that the SpaceX lockup, not the rocket, is what the price is starting to discount early.
The August Lockup Cliff Is the Real Overhang
The supply calendar is the story. Only about 4% of SpaceX shares were available to the public at IPO, and the lockup releases start unlocking that scarcity. The first tranche on August 6 frees 20% to 30% of shares, 55 days after listing, a single release potentially larger than the entire IPO float.
From there the drip is relentless. Roughly 7% unlocks on August 20, then again on September 9, September 24, October 9 and October 24, with a 28% block tied to Q3 earnings in late October or early November. Employee shares follow on December 8, institutional investors between February and August 2027, and Elon Musk’s full stake on June 12, 2027.
Markets price this kind of overhang before it arrives, which is why the stock has already broken. The dynamic was visible earlier too, when SpaceX first fell below its IPO price after entering the Nasdaq 100. The current slide is the market front-running August.
Why Wall Street Still Targets $242 on SPCX
The bull case leans on the sell-side, which has not blinked. Twenty-seven of 31 analysts rate SPCX a Buy or Strong Buy, the average price target sits at $242, more than double Friday’s close, and Needham recently lifted its target to $250. On those numbers, the drop is a gift.
The growth profile supports the optimism. Revenue grew 33% the prior year, the company is spending an expected $40 billion in capex in 2026 to build out its launch and connectivity franchise, and the addressable market barely has a public comparable. Buyers argue the lockup selling is a technical event, not a change in the business.
The setup breaks higher if the August tranches clear without a cascade and mid-August earnings reframe the story around fundamentals. On that path, a holder who buys the 49% drawdown from the high is front-running the moment the supply overhang is absorbed and the float finally reflects demand.
What an 85x Sales Multiple Has to Defend
The bear case is a valuation problem the lockup will test in public. SpaceX trades near an 85x price-to-sales multiple on less than $19 billion in annual revenue, and it is not yet profitable. That is a rich number to defend into a wave of new supply.
Relative value already flags it. Among trillion-dollar names, SpaceX screens as the priciest on cash flow while Micron screens as the cheapest. When the August 6 unlock hits, insiders sitting on gains from a $135 cost basis have every reason to sell into a stock still valued at a premium.
The setup breaks lower if the first tranche floods the tape and each subsequent 7% release resets support downward into the 28% Q3 block. The asymmetry investors have to price is uncomfortable. The long-term franchise may justify the hype, but between now and December the SpaceX lockup keeps handing the market more supply than it can easily absorb.
More to come.
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